How to make a bad decision

Anne Hunt
3 min readApr 27, 2018

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The rain it raineth on the just/And also on the unjust fella;
But chiefly on the just, because/The unjust hath the just’s umbrella
Baron Bowen

Guess what? Injustice is much more easily perceived by the recipient than it is by the perpetrator.

This should be completely obvious, pretty much from kindergarten. When you cut to the front of the line at the ice cream truck, you felt like it was only a little bit bad. The kids behind you felt more strongly about it. Trust me.

Fast forward 20 or 30 years: you work at a tech company. Someone complains about sexism. You say — what? There’s no sexism at my company. We make decisions based on merit here. Time to think again.

First let’s ask ourselves — what is my gender? It’s no secret that if your answer is “male”, you might not notice sexism or sexual or gender-based harassment in your workplace.

“It turns out that many men are abysmally inaccurate at assessing the extent to which they are active allies for women and minority groups at work.” And further, “While 45% of white men said that white men in their company had a positive effect on diversity efforts, only 21% of women and minorities agreed.” (HBR)

Ok, so we know about that, but let’s go deeper, because this goes beyond garden-variety prejudice. In fact, I’d guess that most people who create sexist, or racist, or other-biased outcomes at work don’t feel any animosity towards the people their behavior is harming.

You may be practicing statistical bias, and the effects are equally harmful, regardless of your intention.

How does this work? You may have a “feeling” that a certain type of person will do a better job, and so you lean towards hiring or promoting that kind of person. In 2013, Paul Graham was famously described as being willing to invest in anyone who looks like Mark Zuckerberg. Let the record show: very few women or people of color look like Mark. (Paul Graham denies that he thinks looks are predictive.)

You may not be at all prejudiced against any group. Rather, you have observed a type of person (a certain race, gender, etc.) doing well on a task — so you think someone else of the same type will also do well. Coupled with a bit of narcissism you decide someone like yourself is likely to succeed.

Perhaps you just feel a “spark” with a certain candidate. You think they are a “cultural fit.” It turns out, you are likely to feel that spark with someone who reminds you of yourself. A C-level executive at Microsoft once praised a manager by telling me: “he just reminds me of myself as a young man.” Clearly, I immediately recognized that as very high praise!

You are especially likely to favor people like yourself if you are not basing your decision on objective criteria for the position. (research)

And so you make your decisions on whom to include, whom to hire, whom to promote, fully sure that you yourself would never practice any pernicious bias.

And yet… are you sure?

And a final interesting point: if there’s only one woman candidate in your candidate pool, there is statistically no chance she’ll be hired. (This is actually the title of the linked Harvard Business School article. If you are a hiring manager and you haven’t read it yet, please do so now. After all, some self-knowledge might go a long way.)

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Anne Hunt
Anne Hunt

Written by Anne Hunt

Product leader, artist, and early developer of intelligent systems. Contact me if you want to talk about art, good software, or cool product ideas.

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